Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
The Work wall

Publications

The full corpus in one place: peer-reviewed articles, working and discussion papers, datasets, policy briefs, and op-eds.

Spotlight
Peer-reviewed · 2025

Can capitalism save democracy?

Journal of Democracy 36(3) · with Way & Levitsky

A strong, autonomous private sector underwrites democratic resilience; state capture of business is the more direct threat.

Peer-reviewed · 2025

Autocrats and their business allies: informal politics of defection and co-optation

Government and Opposition 60(4)

Even without power-sharing, material quid pro quo can keep autocrats' business allies loyal; the effect runs partly through state control of the media.

Op-ed · 2025

Prosecuting the powerful: prosecuting political leaders is healthy for democracies

Foreign Policy · with Gunitsky & Jafarov

Why prosecuting political leaders for crimes is healthy for democracies.

Policy brief · 2026

Reality check on donor expectations: do GovTech initiatives help autocrats?

IDOS Policy Brief 17/2026 · with von Schiller

Efficiency-enhancing GovTech tools, when paired with sophisticated regime communication, can durably entrench autocratic rule.

Working paper · dataset · 2025

Tracking autocratization transparently: an event-level dataset (DERTT)

with Way, Levitsky & Talebirad

An LLM-extracted, reproducible event-level dataset of democratic erosion: 76,792 unique incidents across 197 countries, 2000 to 2023.

Working paper · 2025

Sultanist and militarist soft propaganda, and support for security operations

with Donnelly

How sultanist and militarist soft propaganda on state-funded TV shifts support for security operations at home and abroad.

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The full ledger

2026 Op-ed Reforming the development sector for agentic AIIDOS Current Column 06
2026 Book chapter The future of democracy promotionIDOS Report · with Leininger 03
2026 Working paper Elite defection under polarizationwith Jafarov, del Río 0304
2025 Op-ed Prosecuting the powerful: prosecuting political leaders is healthy for democraciesForeign Policy · with Gunitsky & Jafarov 040305
2025 Working paper Tracking autocratization transparently: an event-level dataset (DERTT)with Way, Levitsky & Talebirad 04
2025 Working paper Resource concentration and autocratic resiliencewith Way & Levitsky 040201
2025 Working paper Domestic leader prosecutions: PROSEC Dataset v1.0with Gunitsky & Jafarov 0403
2025 IDOS Discussion paper E-government tools, authoritarian propaganda, and regime supportwith von Schiller 010603
2025 Peer-reviewed Can capitalism save democracy?Journal of Democracy 36(3) · with Way & Levitsky 02
2025 Peer-reviewed Autocrats and their business allies: informal politics of defection and co-optationGovernment and Opposition 60(4) 0201
2024 IDOS Policy brief Countering information pollution to protect democracywith Breuer 010602
2024 Peer-reviewed Mobilizing the masses: measuring resource mobilization on TwitterSociological Methods & Research 53(1) · with Reda & Abdalla 04
2024 Peer-reviewed Out of sight, out of mind: lockdown measures and sentiment toward refugeesJ. Information Technology & Politics 21(2) · with Reda & Aboussalah 0504
2022 Peer-reviewed Containing ethnic conflict: repression, cooptation, and identity politicsComparative Politics 54(4) · with Belge 0504
2021 Policy brief COVID-19 impact assessment reportTURKONFED & CIPE other
2018 Op-ed Returning homeBirikim 05
2016 Op-ed Tackling the Syrian refugee crisisTurkish Policy Quarterly · with Arslan & Taner 05
2016 Op-ed Five disturbing facts about living under occupationMiddle East Monitor 05
2015 Report Improving basic services delivery for the poor in OIC member countriesCOMCEC · with Development Analytics other
2014 Report Supply and demand for child care services in TurkeyWorld Bank · with Development Analytics other
2011 Op-ed Youth who make the futureopenDemocracy 03