Cross-partisan disaster relief aid as opposition depolarization tactic

Abstract

Can opposition parties help depolarize with cross-partisan post-disaster solidarity under authoritarian regimes? The increasingly frequent climate disasters like wildfires and floods may exacerbate polarization through a partisan distribution of resources, and autocrats may take advantage of these disasters to consolidate their support base and discredit the opposition. In response, opposition parties may deploy cross-partisan disaster relief aid as a depolarization strategy. We test the effectiveness of such relief aid by Turkey's main opposition, using a well-powered in-person survey experiment. Turkey, an electoral autocracy with intense polarization, government propaganda, and ethnic conflict, presents a hard test case. Our findings reveal that costly public acts may increase political tolerance toward the opposition, despite government propaganda. However, it backfires in terms of affective polarization, leading to perceptions of hypocrisy not just among pro-government voters but also among ethnic minorities in opposition. These results suggest that conventional depolarization tools may have unintended and divergent consequences, with significant implications for opposition strategies against autocrats.