Semuhi Sinanoglu with Seva Gunitsky & Sahib Jafarov (2025). “Domestic leader prosecutions: PROSEC Dataset v1.0.” Working paper. Includes an original dataset.
A global dataset of domestic leader prosecutions in hybrid and democratic regimes, 1989 to 2023.
Does the prosecution of former leaders by their own states strengthen or undermine democracy? Supporters of leader prosecutions emphasize their effects on accountability, transparency, and legal equality, while critics warn of elite vendettas, public disillusionment, and deepening polarization. Yet this debate has so far rested largely on normative or ideological claims rather than systematic evidence. To address this gap, this research note introduces the first comprehensive global dataset of leader prosecutions in hybrid and democratic regimes from 1989 to 2023. We find that the practice is surprisingly common -- over a quarter of all non-autocratic leaders have been prosecuted by their own governments during this period. We find no evidence that poorer or less institutionally capable countries are more likely to prosecute, and little evidence that prosecutions are followed by cycles of political retribution. We also find evidence of regional contagion, especially in recent years. These findings, while suggestive, challenge the idea that prosecutions are markers of democratic decline, instead highlighting legal capacity and political context as crucial factors in the decision to prosecute.