Semuhi Sinanoglu with Jennie Barker (2026). “Foreign aid and NGOs under democratic backsliding.” In The International Dynamics of Democratic Backsliding, edited by Simón Ballesteros, Daniel Laqua, and Susan Stokes. Book chapter.
Democratic backsliding is both a consequence and a driver of aid cuts and shrinking civic space.
In 2025, major foreign aid donors introduced dramatic funding cuts. As a consequence, civil society groups and NGOs, which are often the intended recipients of aid, must now operate with less as international and domestic conditions for them continue to deteriorate. We suggest that democratic backsliding is both a consequence and a driver of these trends in foreign aid and civic space. Our argument is twofold. First, geopolitical changes have de-prioritized democracy promotion for donors, with overall aid declining, a greater share allocated to protecting strategic interests, and a reluctance to withdraw support from autocrats who serve as strategic partners despite their transgressions. These shifts, in turn, are likely to tarnish donors' (and recipient NGOs') reputations, lower public support for aid, and negatively affect democratic outcomes in recipient countries. Second, autocrats in recipient countries leverage these securitization trends in aid to further restrict NGOs, as reflected in mounting global crackdowns. These restrictions reduce donors' willingness and ability to provide aid in such a shrinking civic space. This reduced engagement is also exacerbated in donor countries by rising nativist sentiments, which allow democratic backsliders to attack aid infrastructure and reduce democracy aid. In light of these trends, we conclude by discussing potential tools to counter authoritarian propaganda about aid and civil society and identify areas for further research on how NGOs can adapt to survive.