Dr. Semuhi Sinanoglu
Bio

About me

I’m a senior researcher at the German Institute of Development and Sustainability (IDOS). I completed my PhD in Political Science at the University of Toronto. I’m a German Marshall Fund Marshall Memorial Fellow (MMF) (2025).

At IDOS, I offer policy advice to German and international stakeholders on countering digital authoritarian propaganda, based on insights from my experimental and computational research within a project team analyzing global autocratization and polarization trends. I launched a new research-based policy initiative, called Corporate Civic Responsibility in Safeguarding Democracy (#DEMCOR), which aims to map global business initiatives for protecting democracy and, through experiments, identify what motivates firms to take action. In addition, I lead an initiative to reform programming, consulting, and capacity building in the development cooperation sector, using a multi-agentic AI architecture.

I study how dictators drive support for their regimes through propaganda, repression, and polarization, and which counter-mobilization and international assistance strategies can mitigate their effectiveness. My dissertation research is about how and why autocrats financially coerce their closest business allies during sovereign debt crises. I also contribute to the computational and experimental methodological tools in political science research. I am part of several novel data collection efforts, including developing measures of autocratization and leader prosecutions. My co-authored papers are published in leading journals in our discipline, such as Journal of Democracy, Sociological Methods & Research, Government & Opposition, and Comparative Politics.

Previously, I was the co‑founder of a Toronto‑based political risk consultancy company, Maidan Analytics, which leverages proprietary algorithms to forecast protests and elections. Before my doctoral studies, I worked as a social policy researcher at Development Analytics, offering quantitative analysis support for reports delivered to international organizations.

I also co‑founded two social impact initiatives. One, CityInclusive, based in Montreal advocated for social inclusion in the design of smart cities. The other, Co-Opinion Network, based in Istanbul, mobilized more than 30 stakeholder organizations in six countries across the MENA region to foster inclusive economies in the region in the wake of the Fourth Industrial Revolution.

During my doctoral studies, I was a graduate associate at POSTCOR Lab, a Trudeau Centre Fellow at the Munk School, a fellow at Jeanne Sauvé Foundation, and a Regional Manager at Digital Society Project. I’m a member of the Global Relations Forum. I’m also an alum of Massey College.

You may also find me occasionally singing at open mic events.

Portrait of Semuhi Sinanoglu
Launched

Initiatives

Data Infrastructure · 2026-29 · Bonn/Toronto

Autocracy Data Hub

A sustainable dataset infrastructure for transparent, replicable, and low-cost measures of political regime dynamics. Ongoing collaboration with Lucan Way and Steve Levitsky.

DEMCOR · 2025-28 · Bonn

Corporate Civic Responsibility in Safeguarding Democracy

The project aims to develop a database of business-led pro-democracy initiatives and conduct experiments to assess which interventions are effective in convincing firm managers to support democracy.

Depolarization Toolkit · 2026-28 · Bonn

A multi-agentic AI framework for depolarization

In collaboration with UNDP and DW Akademie, the project aims to develop an AI assistant with a multi-agent architecture for depolarization-related programming, consulting, capacity building, and training, targeting development practitioners, media professionals, and public communicators.

Political Risk Consultancy · 2019-24 · Toronto

Maidan Analytics

We offered risk consultancy built on two proprietary algorithms that predict protests and forecast elections in authoritarian regimes using open data and cutting-edge methodologies.

Social Impact · 2017-18 · Montreal

CityInclusive

Advocating for social inclusion in the design of smart cities, on our digital platform, we documented the work of Canadian cities as they went through the process of developing applications for the Smart Cities Challenge Canada.

Social Impact · 2015-17 · Istanbul

Co-Opinion Network

The network mobilized more than 30 stakeholders in six countries across the MENA region, built cross-sectoral collaboration for inclusive economies in the age of the Fourth Industrial Revolution, and organized summits and trainings in Belgium, Italy, Lebanon, Morocco, Tunisia, and Turkey.

Recognition

Fellowships & Awards

Fellowships & Affiliations
Awards & Scholarships
Background

Education

Degree Programs
Non-degree Programs
Network

My Profiles