The future of democracy promotion

Abstract

Democracy promotion as we know it is likely finished. The global wave of autocratisation has fundamentally altered the landscape, rendering traditional approaches to democracy promotion largely ineffective and unsustainable. The logic of democracy promotion has reversed: during the Third Wave of Democratisation, the aim was to work with the tide of democratisation; today it works "against the tide" of autocratisation. That is why democracy aid should aim for protection instead of promotion. Despite evidence suggesting that democracy aid has worked against autocratisation, significant empirical gaps remain regarding which specific approaches are most effective. This effectiveness depends in part on how these strategies are publicly communicated. With the international institutional infrastructure for democracy aid crumbling, alternative conditionality mechanisms are required.